25/10/2026
Freemasons Victoria will reach a membership level of zero on Saturday, August 8, 2037, if the current trajectory of decline continues, computer modelling predicts.
That scenario is less than 11 years away, the independent projections indicate. The current long term net loss rate (1997-2026) is 1.3699 members per day.
This analysis is about cold, hard actuarial mathematics. A few might seek to rubbish these statistical predictions because I am the author of this post. 'Playing the man' will say more about them than me. I express no opinion or viewpoint, I simply share the sad arithmetical evidence. I am a former member of Freemasons Victoria, having resigned after 48 years, on September 3, 2026. I no longer have skin in the game. I am no longer encumbered by an obligation of secrecy/confidentiality. People may attempt to censor this post or try to belittle me, but that would be futile. The decline is an inconvenient and uncomfortable truth that will be published and discussed elsewhere anyway. The numbers do not lie. This post is simply about a robust contest of ideas, expressed politely and respectfully, as teachings about rhetoric encourage.
The decline trend, at its current rate, started last century, with numbers nose-diving through the 20,000 mark, in 1997, 30 years ago. The decline is accelerating in 2026.
If the loss of memberships continues at this ongoing rate, Freemasons Victoria would potentially become unsustainable in its current form, operationally and financially, well before the 2037 timeline. The 5000 level, often quoted in the past as the 'critical mass', is due on August 8, 2027, according to the modelling. That is 292 days away, just under 42 weeks.
The diminished numbers in the next decade would mean fewer lodges, fewer members in lodges, producing less in capitation fees to fund the operations of the organisation.
The Grand Lodge set-up in its current form would be impossible to sustain, without biting into investment funds to prop up the finances. Land Tax represents a considerable additional threat to the organisation's viability.
At best, capitation fees of approximately of $160 each member, multiplied by 5800 members, produces $928,000 per year. Yet the Grand Lodge Office staff level has continued to grow, and the wages bill alone is now believed to be in the vicinity of $2 million annually. Less paying members, more paid staff. A number of staff enjoy six-figure salary packages.
In the financial year ended June 30, 2026, the Grand Treasurer said there was a net loss of $5.1 million, with a net after-tax operating deficit of $3.6 million. An optimistic "better-than-break-even" rate is being spruiked for 2026-27.
The negative trend of membership numbers is marked by an average member age of approx. 67. Natural attrition outpaces new memberships, causing a net decline each and every year. Bluntly, more die than join.
In 1997, the fraternity had 20,000 affilliated brethren. More recently, benchmarks have been a membership level of 9356 in the 2017 year, 7286 in 2021-22, 6800 in 2024, and 5800 at present (year 2026).The graph shows that the loss rate slowed only during the term of the Immediate Past Grand Master (August 2022-March 2025).
According to the modelling, the outgoing 2025-2027 Grand Master will bequeath his successor an estimated 5215 membership tally at the Grand Installation due to be held on Saturday, March 13, 2027.
The mathematics of the decline rate indicate that the 2029-2031 Grand Master, due to be taking over in March 2029, would inherit 4240 members.
His successor would be handed a membership of 3264, in March 2031. The modelling predicts a membership level sitting at 2278 at the end of that two-year term in March 2033.
There are varying views as to what membership level is required to sustain the current organisation, with its present spending mindset including business-class international air flights, and a business lunch culture, paid by members' funds, approved by the Commercial Council.
Speaking at the 2017-2025 Stratgeic Plan, the then Board chair, and the then Grand Master, talked about a 5 per cent annual membership increase, with the optimistic aim of numbers going upwards to over 10,000 within five years. That Grand Master, now the 2026 Grand Secretary, said: "I think is really pertinent at the moment to be talking about change. The old adage of if we keep doing doing what we have always done, we only keep getting the same result, that means we need to change."
At that time there were 9356 members. That level has since fallen 44 per cent to today's 5800 roll-call.
Freemasons Victoria published this video on YouTube a decade ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4qrnVwCs3Q]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4qrnVwCs3Q