23/08/2026
This summer’s forecast: ☀️🌞🕶️😎👙⛱️🏖️🏝️
El Niño is coming, and this time the hype looks real
You may have seen dramatic posts circulating about a monster El Niño brewing in the Pacific. For once, the science backs up the headlines. NOAA and Earth Sciences New Zealand both confirm a major El Niño is underway, with better than a 90 percent chance it becomes a very strong event this summer. Some forecast models suggest it could rank among the strongest ever recorded.
So what is the difference between El Niño and La Niña? They are opposite phases of the same Pacific climate cycle. During La Niña, which we have lived through for the past few years, warm water pools near Australia and the tropics send moist northerly systems and ex tropical cyclones our way. That pattern delivered the floods, slips and storms the Coromandel knows all too well. El Niño flips the script. Warm water shifts to the eastern Pacific, and New Zealand swings into persistent westerly and southwesterly winds with drier weather in the north and east.
On the eastern side of the Peninsula, those westerlies blow offshore. That means flatter seas inshore, cleaner beach conditions, and more boating and fishing days out of Whitianga, Hahei, Tairua and Whangamata than recent summers delivered. The western side will notice the difference, with the Firth of Thames likely to be and less inviting on the frequent windy days. Surfers on the east coast should do well. Offshore westerlies groom the breaks, so when swell arrives, spots like the Whangamata bar should be clean and well shaped, though with fewer tropical systems the big northerly swells may be less frequent, leaving southerly groundswells to do the work.
The water itself will feel different. The marine heatwaves of the La Niña years are unlikely to return, with cooler, clearer water more typical of El Niño summers. Anglers may find the season runs to a different rhythm, and game fishers chasing marlin and tuna may need to work a little wider and watch the currents closely, though good seasons have still been had in El Niño years. Air temperatures should be near average or a touch above, but the feel will change. Gone is the sticky tropical humidity of recent summers, replaced by warm, dry, breezy days and cooler, clearer nights.
The minuses need planning. Drier conditions raise drought risk for farmers and growers, put pressure on water supplies during the summer peak, and raise bush fire risk sharply. Windy days will be frequent.
Peak conditions are expected over the coming summer. The best advice now is simple. Think about water storage, keep an eye on fire restrictions, and enjoy a summer that should look very different from the last few.
