12/01/2025
BREAKING: CNN's polling wizard Harry Enten drops a bombshell that tomorrow's special election in deep-red Tennessee is shaping up to be an absolute disaster for Donald Trump — even though he won the district by 22 points in 2024.
Even the south has soured on MAGA...
"We can't make it to the end of the year without first holding a special election in Tennessee's 7th congressional district this Tuesday, and it is a ruby-red district in which the Democrats should not even come close to winning," said Enten said. "It had a GOP rep, of course, that rep decided to step aside, and it's also a district in which Donald Trump has absolutely dominated."
"I mean, take a look at his margins in the past couple of elections: In 2016, he won it by 17 points. In 2020, Donald Trump won it by 15. In 2024, he won it by 22 points, a close GOP win on Tuesday — while it would still be a win — it would be a sign of weakness for the Republican Party," said Enten.
Democratic state Representative Aftyn Behn is facing off against Republican Matt Van Epps to fill a seat left empty by the departure of Republican Mark Green. Unfortunately for Van Epps, he's running under the looming shadow of Trump's failed presidency, skyrocketing consumer prices, and a simmering Jeffrey Epstein scandal.
"So what do we actually expect on Tuesday in Tennessee's 7th congressional district?" Enten continued. "Well, take a look here this is the chances in the Tennessee 7th special election and this is the prediction market odds according to Kalshi, the prediction market. Look at this... The most likely outcome is a GOP win but by under 10 points, a 71% chance."
"Compare that to this, look at this: There's actually a chance of a Democrat win, a 15% of a Democratic win in a district that Donald Trump carried by 22 points, 22 points back in 2024," said Enten.
"So even here, if the GOP wins by under 10 points, that most likely outcome is actually a very bad outcome for Republicans compared to the presidential baseline," he went on. "We're talking about Democrats outperforming the 2024 presidential baseline by double digits."
"Now if this was just happening in Tennessee's 7th congressional district, what we expect to happen, that is a big Democratic overperformance, that would be one thing," he said. "But we've already had five other special elections so far for the U.S. House of Representatives in 2025 and what we've seen in each and every single one of them is the Democrats outrunning Kamala Harris."
"It looks like the most likely outcome is Democrats outperforming the 2024 baseline by at least 10 percentage points, and that could be very, very good news for them come 2026," said Enten. "Why do I say that? Even if they were to lose on Tuesday and Republicans were able to hold on to the 7th District, well take a look through history..."
Enten went on to explain that a party outperforming in special elections has been an indicator "five out of five times" since 2005 that the party would win the mid-term elections. He concluded that the numbers paint a "very good picture for Democrats heading in to 2026."
The political reality is undeniable now. Americans are fed up with Republican greed, corruption, and a pathological refusal to govern. Prices are up, our healthcare system is crumbling, and Trump is gearing up for an evil, pointless war in Venezuela. Voters were tricked into thinking that Trump would lower their grocery prices. Instead, he's trying to flush the entire country down the toilet.
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