11/06/2020
Nov. 6, 2 p.m. Eta Update: Monroe County Emergency Management will continue to monitor Tropical Depression Eta in conjunction with National Weather Service Key West (NWSKW). The forecast later today will provide better information on the track and intensity of Eta after the hurricane hunter aircraft finds the center of the storm. Eta is still predicted to be a large and disorganized system when it reaches the Florida Keys with winds reaching far from the center of circulation. Tropical storm force sustained winds may begin in the Florida Keys as early as Sunday morning, but are more likely to begin Sunday evening. A tropical storm or hurricane watch will likely be announced later today as the Florida Keys near the 48-hour window of tropical storm or hurricane wind conditions. This storm is predicted to affect the entire Florida Keys chain.
• Tropical Storm Watch: Wind speeds of 39-73 mph are possible within 48 hours.
• Tropical Storm Warning: Wind speeds of 39-73 mph are expected within 36 hours.
• Hurricane Watch: Sustained winds of 74 mph or higher are possible. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane watch is issued 48 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical storm force winds.
• Hurricane Warning: Sustained winds of 74 mph or higher are expected. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the warning is issued 36 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds.
The National Weather Service’s Jon Rizzo said the system, at the moment, is still suspected to be in the 60-65 mph wind range, but with a category 1 starting at 74 mph and 10 mph give or take, a hurricane watch is not off the table. “There is not a high chance this will extend beyond a category 1 because it is lacking the structure, will pass over Cuba, and has wind shear working against it,” he said.
With Eta’s current track, a variety of threats including isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, and flooding rains that can uproot trees due to saturated ground can be expected. Residents should prepare for 5 to 15 inches of rain. Rizzo also said coastal flooding with tides one to two feet higher than what the Florida Keys are experiencing right now can occur in both oceanside and bayside areas. Residents can expect flooding in low-lying areas that typically experience rain flooding.
“This is a good time to remind residents that it is not safe to drive through water that will likely be on the streets during and after the storm,” said Monroe County Emergency Management Director Shannon Weiner. “Road flooding is considered to be highly likely with this storm and is typically saltwater, which can be detrimental to your car. Please remember the saying ‘turn around, don’t drown’.”
Weiner said she will recommend the mayor declare a State of Local Emergency for Monroe County tomorrow morning. She is evaluating transient RV and camper evacuations due to wind speeds being predicted higher than 50 mph and unsafe for untied down high-profile vehicles. She is also considering local general population sheltering for those who live aboard boats, in mobile homes, or are homeless. Monroe County school closures have not been announced, but schools may be closed on Monday if they are needed for in-county sheltering and for unsafe conditions. A decision on sheltering will be made tomorrow, Saturday, Nov. 7.
Additional information regarding Eta will be released later today.